The subgroup of people ages 25 to 54 (adults in their prime working years) grows at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over that period-more slowly than in recent decades. That measure, which CBO uses to project the size of the labor force, is composed of people age 16 or older. The civilian noninstitutionalized population grows from 266 million people in 2023 to 301 million people in 2053, in CBO’s projections, expanding by 0.4 percent per year, on average. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population.That growth will be increasingly driven by immigration as fertility rates remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration. Population growth is generally projected to slow between 20, averaging 0.3 percent per year over that period. As growth of the population age 65 or older outpaces growth of younger age groups, the population is projected to continue to become older. In CBO’s projections, the Social Security area population-the relevant population for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits and the measure of population used in this report-increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections, which underlie the agency’s baseline budget projections and economic forecast that will be published later this year. For example, the size of the population ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people employed likewise, the size of the population age 65 or older affects the number of beneficiaries of federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affects the economy and the federal budget.
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